Executive Dashboard
LiveTotal Sales
4,876
All channels · Feb 18
Total Revenue
$609K
w/ Lift · Feb 18
ATP
$124.84
+7.9% vs 2025
Sell-Through
12.7%
of 38,400 sellable
Weekly Pace
~350/wk
50/day avg
ATP vs 2025
$125 +7.9%
2025: $115.65
Days Remaining
100
14.3 weeks
Sell-Through Progress
4,876 sold77% Target: 29,568Capacity: 38,400
Current Pace~50/day → ~12,150 total (31.6%)
Need for 77%218/day · 1,666/wk (4.8x current)
2025 Walk-Up8,400 (24%) sold in final 6 days
Charley Night Critical941 total tickets (19%). Only 6,688 site visits vs Miranda's 13,301. Traffic problem — needs 2x current visits.
VIP BreakthroughJan 31: 14 VIP1A Group tickets at $675 ATP = $9,450 on Pardi night. Premium demand validated.
Stapleton CollisionChris Stapleton + Lainey Wilson at Nissan Stadium May 23 (avg $475). Same demo, 5 days before MCR.
Prediction Engine
AI ModelMulti-Factor Forecast Model
Weighted model using: current velocity trend, 2025 seasonal pattern, marketing ROAS lift, walk-up factor, economic headwinds (consumer confidence at decade low), and competitive market pressure (Stapleton +5 days).
Bearish Case
14,200
37% sell-through
Flat velocity + headwinds
Net: -$3.75M
Base Case
21,500
56% sell-through
3x acceleration + walk-up
Net: -$2.48M
Bull Case
29,600
77% sell-through
2025-style surge + VIP push
Net: -$1.82M
Key Variables & Confidence Weights
| Factor | Input | Weight | Impact on Forecast | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Velocity Trend | 350/wk, flat 8 weeks | 30% | Drags base case down | HIGH |
| 2025 Seasonal Curve | 24% walk-up, 4x final-month surge | 25% | Major upside lever | HIGH |
| Marketing ROAS Lift | 13.26x top campaign; $482K budget | 15% | Significant if realloc'd | MEDIUM |
| Consumer Confidence | 84.5 (decade low, Jan 2026) | 10% | Headwind on premium | MEDIUM |
| Competitive Pressure | Stapleton May 23 @ $475 avg | 10% | Wallet fatigue risk | MEDIUM |
| VIP/Group Expansion | 1.1% now vs 8-15% benchmark | 10% | Revenue lift $250-500K | HIGH |
Week-by-Week Projected Trajectory
Bearish = flat pace + 15% walk-up. Base = 3x ramp-up from week 8 + 20% walk-up. Bull = 5x ramp from week 6 + 24% walk-up (matches 2025). Shaded areas show 80% confidence intervals.
Sales Trajectory
DailyCumulative Tickets & Revenue (Dec 5 – Feb 8)
Weekly Velocity
| Wk | Period | Sold | Revenue | Vel/Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Dec 5-7 | 129 | $15K | 43/d |
| 1 | Dec 8-14 | 1,738 | $200K | 248/d |
| 2 | Dec 15-21 | 1,825 | $235K | 261/d |
| 3 | Dec 22-28 | 309 | $38K | 44/d |
| 4 | Dec 29-Jan 4 | 298 | $35K | 43/d |
| 5 | Jan 5-11 | 195 | $23K | 28/d |
| 6 | Jan 12-18 | 318 | $34K | 45/d |
| 7 | Jan 19-25 | 293 | $35K | 42/d |
| 8 | Jan 26-Feb 1 | 309 | $45K | 44/d |
| 9 | Feb 2-8 | 327 | $38K | 47/d |
Key Spike Events
| Date | Trigger | Tickets | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19 | Eventelect Secondary Push | 1,491 | $193K |
| Dec 8 | General On-Sale | 624 | $72K |
| Dec 12 | Post-On-Sale Momentum | 369 | $43K |
| Dec 10 | LOOP26/Presale Wave | 231 | $25K |
| Jan 31 | VIP1A Group (Pardi) | 14 | $9.5K |
Dec 19 = 26% of all tickets1,491 via Eventelect secondary push. Without this single day, Feb 8 total would be ~4,250 tickets.
Artist Performance
Per NightThu May 28
Miranda Lambert
| Total Sales | 1,936 |
| Revenue w/ Lift | $266,088 |
| ATP | $137.44 |
| Platinum | 538 · $88K |
| Share of Sales | 40% |
| Site Visits | 13,301 |
| Conversion | 2.60% |
| Talent Cost | $600,000 |
Traffic Leader
Fri May 29
Charley Crockett
| Total Sales | 941 |
| Revenue w/ Lift | $95,348 |
| ATP | $101.33 |
| Platinum | 220 · $27K |
| Share of Sales | 19% |
| Site Visits | 6,688 |
| Conversion | 2.48% |
| Talent Cost | $265,000 |
Traffic Problem
Sat May 30
Jon Pardi
| Total Sales | 1,999 |
| Revenue w/ Lift | $247,286 |
| ATP | $123.70 |
| Platinum | 538 · $70K |
| Share of Sales | 41% |
| Site Visits | 10,983 |
| Conversion | 2.75% |
| Talent Cost | $500,000 |
Strongest Momentum
Artist Mix
Market Intelligence
NashvilleCompeting Events — May 2026 Nashville
| Date | Event | Venue | Capacity | Starting $ | Risk to MCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23 | Chris Stapleton + Lainey Wilson | Nissan Stadium | 69,000 | $145 | HIGH |
| May 2 | Florence + The Machine | Bridgestone Arena | 20,000 | $136 | LOW |
| May 6 | Bruno Mars | Nissan Stadium | 69,000 | $254+ | MED |
| May 21 | Black Crowes + Whiskey Myers | Bridgestone Arena | 20,000 | $99 | MED |
| May 28-30 | Ryman Auditorium Shows (TBA) | Ryman | 2,362 | TBA | LOW |
| May 30 | Grand Ole Opry: Opry 100 | Opry House | 4,400 | Varies | LOW |
Stapleton Risk: 5 Days Before MCRChris Stapleton's All-American Road Show at Nissan Stadium (May 23) with Lainey Wilson targets the exact same country demographic. Avg resale: $475. Fans who spend $200-$500+ there may have reduced appetite for another country event the following week. This is the single biggest competitive threat.
Bridgestone Arena Market Position
| US Ranking (Ticket Sales) | #9 in USA |
| 6-Month Tickets Sold | 363,188 |
| 6-Month Gross Revenue | $34.95M |
| Events Per Year | 150+ |
| Average Resale Price | $182.51 |
| Concert Capacity | 18,500-20,000 |
| Local Retail Sales Impact | $14.7M/yr |
Nashville Tourism Economy
| Annual Visitors | 17.3M (record) |
| Visitor Spending 2025 | $11.4 Billion |
| Spending/Day/Visitor | $313 |
| Airport Passengers | 24.7M (record) |
| Music Industry Impact | $10B annual |
| Music Industry Jobs | 56,000+ |
| US City Favorability | #1 (YouGov) |
MCR vs Comparable Events — Economic Impact
| Event | Location | Days | Attendance | Impact | $/Day | $/Attendee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo | Houston TX | 20 | 2.74M | $326M | $16.3M | $119 |
| National Finals Rodeo | Las Vegas NV | 10 | 170K | $156M | $15.6M | $918 |
| CMA Music Festival | Nashville TN | 4 | 80K | $65M | $16.3M | $813 |
| Music City Rodeo | Nashville TN | 3 | 46.8K | $25.6M | $8.5M | $547 |
| Bonnaroo | Manchester TN | 4 | 80K | $51M | $12.8M | $638 |
| Cheyenne Frontier Days | Cheyenne WY | 10 | 200K | $30M | $3.0M | $150 |
Pricing Analysis
Market CompMCR vs Market Ticket Pricing
| Benchmark | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Avg Concert Ticket (2025) | $144 | +45% vs 2019 |
| Bridgestone Arena Avg (Resale) | $182.51 | All events |
| MCR 2026 ATP | $121.83 | Rodeo + Concert combo |
| MCR 2025 ATP | $115.65 | +5.3% YoY |
| Houston Rodeo (2026 Range) | $35-$429 | $95 avg estimate |
| NFR Las Vegas (Avg) | $298-$606 | By platform |
| Stapleton Nashville (Avg Resale) | $475 | May 23 at Nissan |
| Country Floor Seats (National) | $150-$500+ | Face value range |
| Country Upper Bowl (National) | $30-$100 | Face value range |
MCR is Priced Below MarketAt $122 ATP for a rodeo + concert combo, MCR delivers strong perceived value vs the $144 national concert avg and $182 Bridgestone avg. Room to raise premiums.
MCR Price Architecture (22 Levels)
Rodeo-Concert Hybrid Pricing Landscape
| Tier | MCR 2026 | RodeoHouston | NFR Vegas | SA Stock Show | National Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor/Premium | $202-$237 | $205-$429 | $500-$5,400+ | $500-$800+ | $150-$500+ |
| Lower Bowl | $138-$177 | $100-$205 | $200-$500 | $75-$125 | $75-$150 |
| Upper/Value | $53-$88 | $35-$44 | $90-$150 | $10-$50 | $30-$50 |
| VIP/In-the-Dirt | $237-$675 | N/A | Custom | Custom | $500-$6,480 |
| Overall ATP | $122 | $95-$150 est | $298-$606 | $40-$80 | $144 |
VIP/Premium Revenue Gap
Current VIP Rate
1.6%
79 VIP of 4,876
Industry Benchmark
8-15%
Country + Rodeo events
Revenue Gap
$250-500K
At benchmark take rate
65% of country concertgoers purchase VIP/premium. Gen Z 2.5x more likely to buy premium. This is MCR's single largest immediate revenue lever.
2025 vs 2026 Comparison
YOY| Metric | 2025 Final | 2026 Current | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headliners | Reba, Jelly Roll, Tim McGraw | Miranda, Charley, Pardi | - |
| On-Sale Date | Mar 5 (~12 wk lead) | Dec 5 (~24 wk lead) | +12 weeks |
| Presale Burst (3 days) | 9,080 / $1.02M | 753 / $87K | -92% |
| At Week 6 | 18,997 / $2.20M | 3,216 / $396K | -83% |
| At 14 Weeks Out | NOT ON SALE | 5,741 / $699K | Head start |
| ATP | $115.65 | $121.83 | +5.3% |
| Final Total | ~35,000 / $3.0M+ | TBD |
Weeks-Before-Show Timeline
Artist vs Artist at Week 6
| 2025 | Sold | ATP | 2026 | Sold | ATP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reba McEntire | 6,146 | $107 | ← → | Miranda Lambert | 1,312 | $138 |
| Jelly Roll | 7,441 | $116 | ← → | Charley Crockett | 615 | $103 |
| Tim McGraw | 5,410 | $125 | ← → | Jon Pardi | 1,289 | $118 |
| Total | 18,997 | $116 | Total | 3,216 | $123 |
2025 had massive presale burst (9,080 in 3 days). 2026's longer runway strategy trades initial velocity for sustained selling. But week-6 volume gap is significant. 2025's Jelly Roll alone outsold all 3 2026 artists combined by 2.3x.
Economic Context
MacroConsumer Confidence
84.5
Jan 2026 · Decade low
TN GDP Growth
2.0%
2026 forecast
TN Unemployment
3.8%
Below US avg (4.5%)
Headwinds
| Consumer Confidence | 84.5 — lowest since 2014 |
| Expectations Index | 65.1 — below 80 recession signal |
| Ticket Price Inflation (3yr) | +80.5% vs general CPI +7% |
| Nashville Hotel RevPAR | -4.2% Q3 2025 |
| Hotel Supply Pressure | 2,587 rooms under construction |
| Artist Fee Inflation | +30-40% industry-wide |
Tailwinds
| Nashville Visitor Spending | $11.4B record (2025) |
| Country Touring Share | 14.5% of Top 100 — decade high |
| Consumer Event Spend | Resilient despite low confidence |
| TN Personal Income Growth | +4.5% (2026) |
| Nashville City Favorability | #1 in US (YouGov) |
| Country Weekly Listeners | 77.3M — largest genre |
Live Event Industry Trends
US Live Music Market
$18.5B
2025 / +9.1% CAGR
Avg Concert Ticket
$144
+45% vs 2019
Top 100 Tours Avg
$408/tix
$2.5M/show avg
Last-Minute Buying
50%+
Bought within 1 week
Key insight: Over 50% of tickets are now purchased within one week of the event. This supports the walk-up factor being even stronger in 2026 than in 2025. The "hold and wait" consumer behavior is accelerating across the industry.
Marketing ROI
Campaigns2026 Campaign Performance
| Campaign | Spend | ROAS | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Driveable FB | $670 | 13.26x | SCALE 3X |
| Google Search | $2,202 | 12.44x | SCALE |
| Google PMax | $2,989 | 8.63x | SCALE |
| Meta Nashville FB | $1,510 | 5.39x | SCALE 2X |
| Meta Nashville IG | $1,476 | 2.66x | MAINTAIN |
| Meta View Content (All) | $5,191 | 1.92x | SHIFT |
| Vegas Targeting | $850 | 0.21x | KILL |
| Engagement (All) | $2,093 | 0x | KILL |
| Video Views / YouTube | $1,796 | 0x | REALLOCATE |
Budget Allocation ($482K)
Recommended Reallocation
| Channel | Current | Recommended | Expected ROAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google Search | 8% | 30% | 10-12x |
| Google PMax | 11% | 25% | 7-9x |
| Meta Conversions (FB) | 20% | 35% | 5-7x |
| Meta Retargeting | 31% | 10% | 2-3x |
| TikTok/Engagement/Video | 23% | 0% | 0x |
Traffic Funnel (Feb 18)
VISITS
30,972
→
ORDERS
814
→
TICKETS
2,519
2.63% conv · 3.09 tix/order
Financial Model
V8 BudgetSources of Funds (at Sellout)
| Line Item | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Premium Tickets | $4,300,800 | 38,400 × $112 net |
| PVIP Packages | $338,250 | 2,050 × $165 |
| Sponsorship (Cash) | $1,000,000 | LaCroix |
| Sponsorship (In-Kind) | $152,601 | |
| Merchandising | $385,614 | Hats, tees, buckles |
| Other | $21,000 | |
| Total Sources | $6,198,265 |
Uses of Funds
| Category | Amount | % |
|---|---|---|
| Talent | $1,399,345 | 20.6% |
| Miranda $600K · Pardi $500K · Charley $265K | ||
| Rodeo Ops | $1,333,370 | 19.6% |
| Headcount | $908,200 | 13.3% |
| Production | $830,500 | 12.2% |
| COGS | $705,876 | 10.4% |
| Venue | $631,675 | 9.3% |
| Marketing | $482,000 | 7.1% |
| Opex | $474,750 | 7.0% |
| Security | $41,250 | 0.6% |
| Total Uses | $6,806,966 | 100% |
NET OPERATING LOSS AT 100% SELLOUT
$(608,701)
Revenue $6.20M − Expenses $6.81M = Loss even at sellout
Scenario P&L (V8 Basis)
| Scenario | Tickets | Ticket Rev | Total Rev* | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Pace (~33%) | 12,150 | $1.47M | $2.76M | -$4.05M |
| 3x Velocity (~65%) | 25,000 | $3.02M | $4.44M | -$2.37M |
| 77% Target | 29,568 | $3.57M | $4.99M | -$1.82M |
| 90% | 34,560 | $4.18M | $5.70M | -$1.11M |
| 100% Sellout | 38,400 | $4.64M | $6.20M | -$609K |
*Total Rev = ticket × $112 net + PVIP proportional + fixed non-ticket ($1.174M: sponsor $1M + in-kind $153K + other $21K) + variable merch. Expenses fixed at $6.807M per V8.
Velocity Targets
What-IfWeekly Velocity Required to Hit Targets
5,741 sold · 14.3 weeks remaining · 38,400 sellable · Current: ~350/wk
| Target | Tickets | Still Need | /Week | /Day | vs Now | Ticket Rev | Total Rev | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOW (15%) | 5,741 | — | 350 | 50 | 1.0x | $699K | $1.99M | -$4.82M |
| 50% | 19,200 | 13,459 | 941 | 134 | 2.7x | $2.32M | $3.69M | -$3.12M |
| 60% | 23,040 | 17,299 | 1,210 | 173 | 3.5x | $2.79M | $4.16M | -$2.65M |
| 70% | 26,880 | 21,139 | 1,478 | 211 | 4.2x | $3.25M | $4.63M | -$2.18M |
| 77% | 29,568 | 23,827 | 1,666 | 238 | 4.8x | $3.57M | $4.99M | -$1.82M |
| 80% | 30,720 | 24,979 | 1,747 | 250 | 5.0x | $3.71M | $5.13M | -$1.68M |
| 90% | 34,560 | 28,819 | 2,015 | 288 | 5.8x | $4.18M | $5.70M | -$1.11M |
| 100% | 38,400 | 32,659 | 2,284 | 326 | 6.5x | $4.64M | $6.20M | -$609K |
With 2025 Walk-Up Factor (24%)
In 2025, 8,400 tickets (24%) sold in final 6 days. Pre-walkup target = final × 0.76. Over 13.3 weeks (excl. show week).
| Final Target | Pre-Walkup Need | Still Need | /Week | vs Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% (26,880) | 20,429 | 14,688 | 1,104 | 3.2x |
| 77% (29,568) | 22,472 | 16,731 | 1,258 | 3.6x |
| 80% (30,720) | 23,347 | 17,606 | 1,323 | 3.8x |
| 90% (34,560) | 26,266 | 20,525 | 1,543 | 4.4x |
| 100% (38,400) | 29,184 | 23,443 | 1,762 | 5.0x |
Walk-Up Factor Cuts Required Velocity ~24%77% target: 1,258/wk with walk-ups vs 1,666/wk without. Industry trend supports this: 50%+ of all concert tickets now purchased within one week of event.
Per-Night Velocity Requirements
Per-night capacity: ~12,800 (38,400 ÷ 3). 14.3 weeks remaining.
| Target | Miranda (2,282 sold) | Charley (1,268 sold) | Pardi (2,191 sold) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Need | /Wk | /Day | Need | /Wk | /Day | Need | /Wk | /Day | |
| 70% | 6,678 | 467 | 67 | 7,692 | 538 | 77 | 6,769 | 473 | 68 |
| 77% | 7,574 | 530 | 76 | 8,588 | 601 | 86 | 7,665 | 536 | 77 |
| 80% | 7,958 | 557 | 80 | 8,972 | 627 | 90 | 8,049 | 563 | 80 |
| 90% | 9,238 | 646 | 92 | 10,252 | 717 | 102 | 9,329 | 652 | 93 |
| 100% | 10,518 | 735 | 105 | 11,532 | 807 | 115 | 10,609 | 742 | 106 |
Miranda: 4.1x acceleration neededTraffic leader (12,204 visits). ~130/wk now. Needs 530/wk for 77%.
Charley: 9.2x acceleration needed~65/wk now. Needs 601/wk for 77%. 1,014 tickets behind Miranda. Biggest gap.
Pardi: 5.1x acceleration needed~105/wk now. Surpassed Miranda in velocity. VIP Group breakthrough.
Revenue Acceleration Levers
| Lever | Potential | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIP Expansion (8-15% take rate) | $250-500K | HIGH | Immediate |
| Charley Traffic (Texas Digital) | $100-200K | MEDIUM | 4-6 wks |
| Digital Reallocation ($117K shift) | $150-300K | HIGH | 2 wks |
| Flash Sales (4 planned) | $100-200K | MEDIUM | Ongoing |
| Corporate/Group Sales | $75-150K | MEDIUM | 4-8 wks |
| Walk-Up Factor (24%) | $200-400K | HIGH | Show week |
| Combined Upside | $875K-$1.75M |
Decision Gates
| Date | Milestone | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | 12-Weeks-Out (2025 on-sale date) | 6,500+ tickets | On Track |
| Apr 1 | 60-Day Countdown | 10,000+ tickets | At Risk |
| May 1 | Final Month | 15,000+ tickets | At Risk |
| May 28-30 | SHOW | 28,000+ (77%) | Needs 4.8x |